Forecasting AI Progress
Summary
Forecasting AI progress is a crucial yet underdeveloped field that aims to reduce uncertainty and inform planning for AI safety and governance. A recent study used the Delphi technique to gather expert opinions on prioritizing questions and methods in this area. The resulting research agenda highlights the need for diverse forecasting approaches, including both statistical and judgmental techniques. Key priorities identified include validating partially unresolved forecasts, making forecasts actionable, and assessing the quality of performance metrics. The field encompasses both general forecasting principles and AI-specific challenges, emphasizing the importance of a multifaceted approach to predicting advancements in artificial intelligence.