AI Progress Analysis
Summary
AI Progress Analysis involves examining the historical patterns, current advancements, and future projections of artificial intelligence development. This field of study encompasses both retrospective and prospective approaches, as evidenced by the two provided abstracts. On one hand, researchers analyze past cycles of AI progress, identifying recurring patterns of initial breakthroughs followed by periods of stagnation and critique, occurring approximately every 30 years since 1958. On the other hand, experts engage in forecasting exercises to predict the timeline of AI capabilities surpassing human performance across various tasks and industries. These analyses aim to inform public policy, guide research directions, and prepare society for the potential impacts of AI advancements on various aspects of modern life, including employment, healthcare, transportation, and creative pursuits.